Total OTC derivatives are up from ~414 trillion to ~516 trillion for notional amounts outstanding (+24.6%) and up from 9.682 trillion to 11.140 trillion at gross market values (+15%).Gold OTC derivatives are actually down from 0.640 trillion to 0.426 trillion for notional amounts outstanding (-33.4%) and from 56 billion to 47 billion at gross market values (-16%). Gold OTC derivatives are still
Significant corrections are taking place for both gold and silver. So far this is the sharpest drop seen since the mid august bottom. Each Fib line is currently a possible downside target.Personally, I observe that at the moment some other markets offer superior short term trading opportunities. Silver (Spot price) 8 hours chartGold (Spot price) 8 hours chart
Dear readers,The trend is simply (still) up until it isn't. The move is extended and as the price keeps climbing the risk for a sharp sell off is also increasing. But for now after a modest ~25$ correction gold quickly recovered and made a new high. The trend (since August) support is currently coming at ~758$ . From an Elliott wave perspective (according to my count and understanding )support is
Gold Yen indicates some kind of top (short or mid term) is around here so take note and be conservative with bearish USD speculation.
Dear readers,In recent weeks the Dow Jones World Index had it's worst decline since 2002.On the same page the VIX reached the highest point since 2003.Given recent moves in major currencies (EURJPY 169 – 149, GBPJPY 251-219) gold have been as stable as one can expect from a major independent private currency. This is very encouraging to say the least. Odds still favors higher gold rates more then
By Summer SaidDUBAI (Reuters) - Dubai, already the region's gold trade hub, may see the launch of the Middle East's first gold exchange traded fund (ETF) in 2008, a senior World Gold Council (WGC) official said on Monday."Gold trade in Dubai and the region is definitely booming and the market players need an ETF market to manage their risk and catch up with other international markets," said Moaz
Dear readers,This will probably be the last GCQ7 chart as gold futures contracts are rolled into December and October (GCV7, GCZ7). Hype is all over the place so sentiment indicator probably supports the case for some correction here, As previously mentioned USD is trying to bounce.August Gold - GCQ7 Intraday (120 min) Chart
Dear readers,The USD is looking oversold here and some bounce might be expected. If you add a channel the way I did, you can see that the USD index is at the bottom of the channel. In addition, the USD just tested the psychological important 80 level – this level was rarely violated, ever.USD Index Daily Chart (note the deep oversold condition of RSI 14)Try to avoid shorting the Yen as the crowed
Dear readers,Yet again, minor consolidation might be over; gold and silver should be ready to move higher. Just my opinion, only the time will tell.(SIU7) COMEX September Silver Intraday Chart (2 hours sticks)(ZGQ7) CBOT August Gold Intraday Chart (2 hours sticks)
First Japanese gold ETF due to launch Aug. 10sourceAs well as Small-Lot Gold Futures Trading on TOCOM(100 grams per lot , margin = 12,000 Yen)sourceKorea : The government plans to establish an exchange for gold as early as next year.By Lee Hyo-sikStaff Reporter"The government plans to establish an exchange for gold as early as next year to make gold transactions more transparent and discourage
Gold, Silver, Platinum & Palladium all up on the day. Two hours sticks chart of COMEX August gold contract looking very similar to the COMEX September silver chart I posted two days ago.
Markets normally lead the press…Japan Should Diversify Reserves, Abe Adviser Ito Says By Shigeki NozawaJuly 11 (Bloomberg) -- Japan, the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries, should invest $700 billion of its currency reserves in higher-yielding assets such as stocks and corporate bonds, said Takatoshi Ito, an adviser to the prime minister.The reserves should be managed by a special fund
Not much change in the USD price of gold (xauusd) today. Gold futures traded and closed slightly higher but priced in Euro and Yen gold is actually down today. The Euro made a new all time high vs. the USD, EURUSD ~= 1.3740. Note that pre issued Euro high was EURUSD 1.4750, Long term (30 years) retro perspective EUR/USD chart.Marginal carry traders capitulated as the Yen rallied strongly. Be
It is always nice to see the price of gold performing well on a day when other currencies are basically idle. The price of gold climbed through several horizontal and diagonal resistance levels, the process was very quick. Gold charts of multiple time frames are now looking much better. Today just proves that buy and hold can work on some occasions, especially when quick mark ups are expected.
Some initial upward movement for the price of gold and silver. Not surprising as buy signal was generated by the HUI/GOLD ratio. Silver outperformed and closed at the high for the week. A slight uptrend is apparent on the intraday chart. As you probably know all trend lines are made to be broken and the shorter the time frame the larger the chance that a trend line will be broken. Anyway, markets
Dear readers,It is a given fact that gold reached a technical comfort zone. I find it funny to read commentary with price objectives slightly above, at or below gold mining break even point. It is a mystery how low the price of gold can be manipulated in a mission to hide competitive currencies devaluation on a global scale. All charts and ratios considered I estimate that a volatile markup for
Individual gold trade this monthBy Wang Lan (China Daily)Updated: 2007-07-04 08:51The beginning of gold trading by individual investors on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) later this month is expected to provide a welcome alternative at a time of high stock market volatility. -linkRTS Realtime Systems Group Offers Connectivity To Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange03/07/07RTS Realtime Systems Group
Interesting times head as significant adjustments are in the works. Currencies, Silver Gold, Oil, Stocks all in the equation with the most controlled item actually needs to be Interest rates. Commodities continue to trade with a group and / or individual bias. Generally it might be the case that commodities are the best play as the long term (decades) cycle is probably most favorable for this
This chart does not look good to say the least... , the bounce was disappointing and the new downtrend looks convincing.
If enough cash based buying enters the physical silver market then regardless of the silver market fundamentals (which are supportive) the price will quickly rally. The move should be similar to the second half 2005<> first half 2006 in which silver climbed about 130% in 8 month. 12.30$ today is like 6.70$ in 2005 so the target is about 27.80$ which is between the short and long 261.8 Fibonacci
It might be the case that criminal acts, corruption and the highest level of abusive acts against people's freedoms are taking place. Authorities all over the world have pushed themselves into the darkest corners. Top academics and high rank officials are refusing to admit their own mistakes which are based on false economic theories. One should be careful and consider all options.
It appears that after yesterday slump some technical repair is currently taking place. This is not the time to sell gold and silver as February 26 was not the time to buy. Yesterday action is nothing new for anyone watching the precious metals, gold has seen moves of ~ 40$ in 24 hours more then once , sharp moves like that are typical at bottoms or tops though it is not always the case. For
The annual mine production of gold is around 2500 metric ton. The notional amount of gold over the counter (OTC) derivatives is 463 Billion USD (BIS Dec 2006). This numbers alone support much higher gold price, just do the simple math.This is only small part of the story as Total OTC derivatives (most are interest rate contracts and credit default swaps) amount at 415 Trillion USD. Gold
Gold and particularly silver are down sharply today. Gold and silver are about at the same point as in the beginning of the year and April 2006. Volume at futures exchanges was large. It was like traders got scared that their gold would catch rust. I estimate that the high volume was due to fundamentals, value and de hedging.Dow Jones /Gold ratio making new highs, inline with recent out
Gold trading is directionless, sentiment is negative as I observe at mainstream media publications.Gold markets structural developments:Small-Lot Gold Futures 100 gram gold contracts to be issued in China and Japan :"BEIJING, June 26 -- The Shanghai Gold Exchange will launch individual gold bullion trading nationwide in July by teaming up with Industrial Bank."-source"TOCOM hopes to inaugurate
If you look at gold compared to other major nations currencies like Yuan, Rupee, Pound, Ruble, Real, Etc. you can see that some of them have been more strong then others and gold retraced a large amount of time and price . It has long been my opinion that gold will appreciate vs. most if not all national currencies. In terms of some national currencies gold is currently trading at serious
Today gold was clearly trading like a currency and no wonder that silver lagged. (The monetary component within silver certainly exist but for lesser extant compared to gold) Before the New York open gold was higher both in terms of Euro and USD then moved higher in USD and Lower in Euro, later the opposite: up in Euro down in USD, a sell off in both majors then a strong impulsive rally into the
Dear readers,I got some nasty massages and emails lately, namely personal attacks. I just want to remind that I'm not a registered investment advisor, broker or dealer. All content on this site is either quoted from other online sources (normally linked to the source) or it is my own analysis and thoughts. Either way I do not recommend that anyone will act upon my analysis.If you want to trade
The Silver wave count seems to be a bit head of gold as observed by comparing recent cycles lows. Overall gold and silver haven't done much lately but continue to be attractive at current prices with significant upside potential. XAGUSD Daily Chart
The sell if they will isn't as meaningful as the reporter wants you to believe. Consider that the outstanding notional amount of gold over the counter derivatives is 463 billion USD , reported by the BIS December 2006. Switzerland's central bank is to sell a further 250 tonnes of gold, dashing hopes for a revival in depressed bullion prices after months of heavy selling by Spain and Belgium.The
There is probably an ongoing gold &silver options repositioning.Gold / oil ratio should continue to move up (15).Gold / silver ratio, many traders are probably taking this trade , not that wise especially for small or big trades, mid size can do better. XAU, HUI indices seem to confirm the turn. Trading continues to be internally technical. If I read the chart correctly 680 shouldn't be very
Dear readers,Gold have probably bottomed and in time will be headed higher to challenge recent highs at 700 U$D / 520 € / 83,000 ¥. Silver confirms this assumption and the silver /gold ratio shows relative strength. Elliott Waves Cyclical view: The advance from the recent low consist of multiple sequences of intraday impulsive 5 waves patterns (visible on minutes charts). Despite the recent
Gold options expire, futures contracts are rolled over (June to August), Statistics coming in at 8:30 and 10:00 AM. Technically the market is extremely indecisive and market participants wouldn't want to be heavily committed.Elliott Wave update will be coming as soon as the picture gets a little bit clearer.ZGM7 CBOT Gold Intraday (120 minute) chartGCQ7 COMEX Gold daily chartXAUUSD (spot gold)
Dear readers,Gold and silver caught some bids today and closed higher along a rising US dollar. Those of you who have been following my posts were certainly not surprised.Some readers have emailed me with questions like: how do I make my gold price predictions (which are often very accurate) and what technical indicators I use for trading? Well, I look at many different things: price & volume
The action today give the USD index a green light to go higher, don’t be surprised to see the Dollar index climbing higher for days, weeks and maybe several month. As far as gold is concerned it is certainly possible that strengthening USD index will have less downside affect on the price of gold, but that remains to be seen. For Fibonacci levels refer to the previous XAUUSD daily chart.As always
Dear readers,Most assets rising in price today and the EUR/USD is higher, the price of gold is up. Positive liquidity which is oxygen for all assets markets appear yet again. Technically: The price of gold managed to break above the sharp short term downtrend line. However, I opine that the last three candles on the daily chart are technically very bearish and that will have more implications
Short term intraday turn up in the momentum indicators failed to materialize into rising gold prices. Gold then dropped like a rock below this month low.A lower low after a lower high is technically bearish. Spot Gold is currently trading around the dreaded 666$ level. The uptrend on the daily chart is still intact but might not hold. Elliott wave cyclical point of view: I think we just
As yesterday low failed to hold a selling spree begun. Buyers quickly lowered their bids and the price of gold tumbled. Personally, I had a small short term speculative position which was immediately stopped out for a minor loss. When a FOMC is scheduled I never hold a large position. So it goes...Technically the daily uptrend is still intact. HUI, XAU, and GOX actually finished the day higher
Technically there is not much change… The uptrend on the daily chart is intact.COMEX June gold (GCM7) daily chart- the price is still between the 50 %( 672.50$) and the 61.8 %( 695.8$) Fibonacci levels.CBOT June gold (ZGM7) intraday (120 minutes) chart – the price recently bottomed at 670.1$ and again at 684.1$ today. Bottom to top and top to bottom short term Fibonacci levels are added.
The last time the US Dollar index was around current levels gold was trading almost 250$ lower. In early 2005 a bottom in the USDX was realized and the Dollar climbed 11 points. At the same time gold was initially trading within a tight trading range till breaking out and rallying along the USD.I have been watching some gold & USDX charts lately, my insights are:The inverted correlation between
Dear readers,The gold market showed strength in the face of rising USD Index. This fact which probably surprised some traders - will be very useful at a later stage of this gold global bull market.Technically, as the price of gold broke above the short term downtrend line the bottom was confirmed. Gold then spent some time back testing the downward slope line and then headed higher. Once gold
Dear readers,Seems to me like intraday wave 4 is over and wave number 5 is underway which should exceed 698$ for the Comex June contract (GCM7). For the relevant Elliott wave count refer to this post.A break above the short term downtrend line will give confirmation.GCM7 Gold June Comex Intraday (120 min) chart
Dear readers, The Europe session will soon begin and the short term momentum haven't turned up yet. So whether we like it or not short term downside still possible. The GC June contract (COMEX GCM7) is trading between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. Long silver short gold spread trades haven't been profitable for a while so take note. As always, keep an eye on XAU, HUI and Of course EUR/USD &
Gold & Silver gained some ground as the Euro makes a new all time high (or is it?)The Euro was introduced to the world financial markets as an accounting currency in 1999 and launched as physical coins and banknotes in 2002.sourceAs explained several days ago, pre issued Euro high was actually higher at about 1.4570$Long term (30 years) retro perspective EUR/USD chart.
The USD Index hovers near decades lows, the EUR/USD pair kissed its all time high (~136.667) currently floating less then a cent below. The jury is still out as things can abruptly change on a penny or less…So far June COMEX gold contract failed to exceed its late February high (~699$) while spot gold managed to trade above the same cyclical high. The contango is taking its toll.XAUUSD Intraday
Educational Gold Trading (or related) video collection.Video wall by Blinkx.Thanks for all video contributors, send me video links for inclusion consideration.Market updates and charts will be posted as needed.
Quite but tensioned trading as the US Dollar index is very near to historical lows (see USDX pattern target) and the EUR / USD pair is 100 pips below the all time high ( I'm referring the high of the actual Euro , theoretically – pre issued EURO was actually higher). Silver continue to lag behind gold, HUI & XAU pulled back slightly.In depth look at HUI & XAU.That’s all for now...
The Elliott Wave Lives ON – Excellent Elliott wave blog, S&P and GLD wave counts included. JsMinset – Jim sinclair popular gold blog. Well designed and informative - Grace Cheng Forex Blog. Advanced XAU / GOLD Ratio Analysis at paint the charts. Silver serial commentary and insights at Silver Axis
Dear readers,Just a quick chart update, this time for the COMEX Gold active contract (GCM7). COMEX is where the big guys like to hang out.Platinum ETF might be issued in SwitzerlandDaily chart - COMEX June Gold 100 OZ Contract (GCM7)
Just for the record, someone needs to track these guys.Japan's Omi Recommends IMF Sell Gold ReservesJapan's finance minister said Saturday he had proposed to the International Monetary Fund's policy-steering body that the fund sell its gold reserves to cover its falling income."Japan has told (the committee): 'Why not sell gold?'" Finance Minister Koji Omi told reporters after attending the
Yet another higher high for gold. Up trends on all time frames still intact.Gold Spot Intraday 4 hour candlesGold Afternoon Fix 35 years weekly linear chartGold Afternoon Fix 35 years weekly log chartGold Spot 10 years weekly linear chartGold Spot 5 years weekly linear chart, Fibonacci levels.Gold Spot daily linear chart, Fibonacci levels
Dear readers,Running this blog since late 2005 I have tried to cover many different subjects which all relate to gold. From weight and purity, through science and forex, to central banks and derivatives- Many different topics are covered.However, Gold is a basic economic element and as such is affected and influenced by so many factors. This is why I have constantly linked to other information
Seems to me that gold is ready for some pullback. My intraday Elliott wave count indicates a completion of intraday wave III. Good support at 667$.XAUUSD Intraday ( 4 hr candles) Chart , click chart to enlarge.
Just a quick update for this very important ratio... Bullish: note the 50/ 200 MA crossover on the weekly chart, this crossovers doesn’t happen too often. PPO is bearish but above zero, RSI at 50. Short term might drop some but going higher. Minimum target = 15, 18 month time frame.Related:Previous gold / oil ratio chartsPrevious crude oil charts
Dear readers,The gold price climbed above the previous day high & monthly high to reach ~ 681.5$ for gold spot. Silver rallied to 14$. A new two plus years high for the EURUSD might explain that. Obviously that immediately negated yesterday top indication. However, please note that on an intraday and maybe also daily basis gold and silver can correct to the uptrend support for any reason or none
Gold opened with a gap down filled it, made a new high then closed near the day low. The futures volume was low and most of the volume was coming on the down side. From my experience days like this are short term tops candidates (more often then not). Silver was doing better but bumped into short term resistance at spot 13.85$, USD Index trying to rally, Crude Oil down, XAU & HUI unchanged. CBOT
The street TRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) is the largest Gold ETF in the world, This fund currently holds 494.56 tonnes of gold (15,900,551 oz) which worth about 10,708,379,381 $.Closely tracking the spot price of gold (less fees) the GLD is up trending since October 2006, while significant pullbacks took place along the way the line connecting the October low and January low remains a buying
Silver showed greater weakness then gold today, actually I see it as a short term negative for both metals.Intraday Spot Silver Chart, Fibonacci Levels Daily trend remains up as long as silver is above ~12.40$Daily Spot Silver, Fibonacci Levels
Lindsay Campbell WallStrip.com host caught my attention with her beautiful gold pendent. Lindsey is an actress based in NYC. She has a website and a blog. Is she amazing or what? source
Gold Nanoparticles May Simplify Cancer DetectionGold nanoparticles stick to cancer cells and make them shine.sourceGold Nanoparticles Show Anti-cancer PotentialSpots of blue indicate where the cancer cells have been killed by a laser. Using gold nanoparticles to indentify malignant cells weakens them, reducing the amount of laser power needed to kill them and allowing healthy cells to get by
The monthly chart certainly look positive as the long term stochastic emerge off bottom.XAU USD Monthly Log Chart:
Dear readers,All the recent short term trend lines were violated so no trade lines for today chart.Few days ago I posted a chart and wrote:The current short term chart pattern is a perfect example of the limitation in Elliott wave analysis: Is it (A-B-C) uptrend pattern or a five wave pattern?Given the recent technical action it seems to me that the second choice is more likely to be in play.
Dear readers, Gold pulled back a bit but held at key Fibonacci levels , as things stand out gold might not touch the lower uptrend line , I have annotated the XAUUSD chart with a new uptrend line , the new uptrend is steeper and suggest that gold can accelerate to the upside. Click on the chart below to enlarge.Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Intraday chart:Spot Gold chart "id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_
The short term uptrend was broken on Friday. Gold and silver are currently vulnerable for more downside. Successful retest of the uptrend line should be a short term buying opportunity. Enlarge chart for better view.XAUUSD intraday chart
Gold followed silver for a new monthly (March) high. The top to bottom chart is annotated with Fibonacci levels and the uptrend channel. All action options are open but the action will be dependent on options... The current short term chart pattern is a perfect example of the limitation in Elliott wave analysis: Is it (A-B-C) uptrend pattern or a five wave pattern? XAU/USD Intraday ( 120 min)
Dear readers,The price action of gold was somewhat mild recently as the money metal consolidated around its 50 days moving average. The uptrend which connects the October 2006 and January 2007 lows is still intact, additional support levels at the 200 daily MA and a bit above the January low. In my opinion there isn't much conviction yet as if another leg up will begin from here or is further
The Yen Is a hot topic lately and so called "Experts" decided that the Yen is to be blamed for the recent volatility hiccup of the global markets. Well, it is true that gold in term of yen made a new 20 plus year high just recently whereas in terms of USD and Euro it did not. This fact might be important to remember.As for the USD/JPY pair?Let's put aside the carry trade and interest rates and
Gold, Silver and precious metals shares continue to recover today. As I see the situation the metals must be a better long term buy after last week drop, however I'm not totally convinced that the bottom of the move is in so traders should be cautious with leveraged short term positions. Uptrend channel still intact on the daily XAUUSD chart.Spot gold Intraday chart, 2 hours candles with
Dear Readers,One can notice the extreme bullish sentiment quickly vanishing. From a technical perspective the downtrend is decelerating but that can quickly change. Gold finds some temporary support at key Fibonacci levels. Silver behave the same as gold with a little more upside / downside kick. The weekly indicators are ok, daily still bearish and the intraday are mixed (some positive, some
Believe it or not this correction is not meaningful when viewed from a cycle analysis point of view, such as Elliott wave count.I have tried to warn you in the several last posts and I hope that at least some of you took profit on speculative short term positions.Long term positions should not be affected at all and anyone should be aware that those steep and sudden sell offs will repeat from
Dear readers,Lets go straight to the point, given the extreme volatility, gold defined a trading range of 33$, 655$ - 688$ for the spot price. In my opinion gold can stay inside this trading range for some time as new positions are building up. A break below the trading range will send the price of gold towards 600$ while a break above and the 2006 high (730$) comes to play. Which way will it go
Dear Readers, Despite of recent spike in the price of gold and silver, gold indices continue to under perform, see recent Gold Indices Review.I wish to share with you an advertisement I saw at yahoo finance HUI page:This more then all is a symbol for the current market sentiment, everyone seems to be bullish about gold lately, gold being a popular topic for main stream investing blogs, The
Dear readers,The GLD chart is annotated with the uptrend channel inside a one year trading range of about 17$ which equals to 170$ in the dollar price per gold ounce. The chart includes the ETF volume bars and two indicators, RSI and PPO which both in the overbought territory after up trending since June 2006.
Dear readers,Today gold had a big up day after yesterday big down day. Interesting to note that the April Future contract (ZGJ7) high of the day was 703.2$!! . At the same time April Contract at the COMEX (GCJ7) traded not higher then 686.5$. Apparently all buy stop orders at the CBOT where triggered creating a spike up and arbitrage opportunity. This is something that already happened before …
As it seems the USD index is at or near a bottom. If my Elliott Wave count is correct then wave 2 is completed and wave three up is expected to begin and carry the USD index higher then the top of wave one(85.45). for longer term USD index charts and Elliott wave count see Saturday, December 02, 2006 US Dollar Index (USDX) Elliott Wave Update
Dear readers,In order to understand the current price behavior of gold you have to go back to the early 1980. Back then gold topped at 850$ an ounce, this is also the all time nominal top as most of you probably know. After going extremely parabolic and rising more then 100% in less then 2 month the price of gold immediately crashed back to 500$ in less then two month. Few month later a secondary
Dear readers,Gold in terms of yen have made a new multi years high (See the long term gold/yen chart below).Other then this I would like to repeat several points:As the great global gold bull market continues expect the price of gold to be more effecting for other market prices and less effected by them. Expect more gold products. Most importantly – Volatility will rise from time to time both on
BOSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--State Street Global Markets LLC, an affiliate of State Street Global Advisors (“State Street”) (NYSE: STT), and World Gold Trust Services, LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the World Gold Council, today announced that the opening of trading in streetTRACKS® Gold Shares (NYSE Symbol: GLD) on the New York Stock Exchange will be changed from 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time to 8:20
Dear readers,I'm posting gold and silver spot weekly charts along several gold ratio charts (Dow Jones, crude oil and silver). Please refer to the latest WTI crude oil charts review and this old post: http://globalgold.blogspot.com/2006/10/dowgold-goldoil-ratios-update.html
Dear readers, The price of gold bottomed at early January and managed to climb about 60$ (roughly 10%) . I'm posting a gold spot chart with several Fibonacci sets, diagonal support lines and the continuation of the Elliott wave count.Enlarge the chart for better view.
Dear readers, It was a busy month! , Posted below are some of the latest international gold market news:IMF to make central bank gold lending data more transparentBlanchard & Company study calling for greater transparency in central bank gold lending accounting has apparently helped to convince the International Monetary Fund to adopt a landmark accounting change in the way central banks account
Dear reader,Gold begins 2007 with sharp rapid decline to level not seen since October 2006. Looking at the uptrend line connecting the June and October lows it's easy to see that gold can go to 570's $ and the uptrend can still be intact . According to my Elliott wave count (June 2006 is a major low) gold can go as low as 560$ and the count will still stay unchanged (bullish). For relevant
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